The Iran Deal and the Future of the Middle East


Photo: Jerusalem Post

By Abraham H. Miller / American Thinker / November 27, 2013

Critics  of President Barack Obama’s Middle East policy should begin with a new set of  premises:  Obama is not stupid.  No one believes Iran will dismantle  its nuclear program.

Of  course, the Iran agreement will not work.  But that’s the idea.  No  one really expects it to work.

In  politics, when you can’t control outcomes but you need to extricate yourself  from the situation, you create charades, rituals, and symbolic victories totally  absent of reality.

In  the Cuban Missile Crisis, we did not go eyeball to eyeball with the Russians and  they blinked.  The Russians gave up Cuba, and we gave up Jupiter Bases in  Greece and Turkey. Only in an American television series do the Russians  blink.

Nixon  and Kissinger brought you peace in Vietnam — by leaving hundreds of thousands  of battle hardened North Vietnamese troops in South Vietnam who then did what  they were expected to do.  They continued fighting until the South  Vietnamese government fell.  What did you think they were going to  do?

Did  anyone really believe North Korea was going to suspend its nuclear program in  exchange for the lifting of sanctions and bringing food to its starving  people?

Obama  after numerous stumbles, misadventures, and the puerile embrace of the Arab  Spring finally understands the Middle East.  We are less likely to create  stable democracy there than in Germany after the Great  War.

The  only thing that can be done about the Middle East is what Nixon did in Vietnam  — declare victory and leave.  Obama is leaving the Middle East.  He  is engaged in as elaborate ritual as Nixon and Kissinger produced with the Paris  Peace Talks.  The sycophantic media is already calling the deal with Iran  historic.

Of  course, Iran is going to get nuclear weapons. Do you have any doubt that the  people who lied about the nuclear facility at Fordo and concealed their weapons program will not build nuclear  weapons?

America  cannot stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.  We can only slow it  down.  Time is on the side of the Iranians. This administration does not  have the political will to stop Iran.  The American people are tired of  war.  Iranian nuclear weapons are a threat to Israel and the sheikdoms of  the Gulf, but they are not a threat to America.

The  entire Middle East is being written off.  We have been involved in the  Middle East like an ill-bred house guest who has stayed too long. It is time to  pack our bags.

And  Americans should cheer.  Whether Obama has made this decision by design or  by stumbling into it, for America, at this moment in history, it is the right  decision.  Pax Americana is ending.  We no longer need the Middle  East, and they no longer need us, except to continue to suck our blood and  treasure.

There is one strategic reason for being in the Middle  East: oil.  But with major strikes in North   Dakota, Texas, and now Australia, the Middle East is losing its importance.  In any event, as Iran’s dismal  economy shows, the producers of oil cannot run an economy without being able to  sell oil.  In business, buyers need sellers and sellers need buyers, and  the way oil is coming online there is going to be a lot more oil in the market.  We don’t need to meddle in the internal politics of the Middle East in order to  have access to its energy.

Japan’s  economic prosperity, achieved in the post-war years by selling consumer goods,  more than rivaled the economic benefits its imperialistic military sought in  World War II, without the barbarism, bloodshed, and nuclear devastation.  Business itself presents options for  economic cooperation far more meaningful than any form of imperialism, military  or dependency.

The  pundits are predicting chaos and bloodshed in a Middle East absent America, as  if that was not already happening.  American blood and treasure will not  stop the Sunnis and Shi’ias from killing each other.  We will not get the  Muslims to love the Jews and the Christians. We cannot stop the grandiose  designs of Islamic fundamentalism or the hegemonic designs of the new  Ottomans.  We cannot stop the devolution of Syria and Iraq.  The  Afghans know we are leaving and thumb their noses at us.  And except for  the pleasure of bashing Israel at the United Nations, not one Arab country cares  about the Palestinians.  Most will not give Palestinians citizenship.   The Arab countries have their own problems.  The Palestinians are barely a  sideshow.

If  you are worried about the Russians, do not be.  I have always believed  Russia needed a hundred Cubas.  In the Middle East she will begin to find  their equivalent.

There  will be exacerbated chaos and greater impoverishment. Middle East refugees will  flood Europe.  The Europeans deserve each and every one of  them.

Educated  and professional classes in Europe will flee to the English-speaking world  across the oceans.  With some modest modifications in immigration law, the  English-speaking world will inherit this talent.  Europe, with its  inability to reproduce itself and its discomfort in standing up for its own  culture, is a failing society.  Europe is dying.  It is just that the  formal obituary has not yet been written.  Marseille, where French is a  second language, is the future of Europe.

And  Israel?  Israel will benefit from America’s departure.  Israel’s  problem is that she does not have the industrial complex to produce the large  weapons systems needed for her protection.  But our military industrial  complex will still need Israel as a market.  And the quiet alliances shaping up between Israel and the Sunni  sheikdoms are mutually beneficial exchanges of Israeli protection for material  resources.  With America gone, the Israelis and the Gulf sheikdoms will  discover a marriage of convenience against an Iranian threat, one that is  acceptable to America but not to the Gulf States and the Israelis. With America  out of the picture, the people of the  Middle East will be forced to think in creative terms to solve their own  problems. These will no longer be our problems.

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